What time is race today

Predict Running Race Finish Times

John Honerkamp is an RRCA and USATF certified running coach, celebrity marathon pacer, and recognized leader in the New York City running community.

When you register for a half-marathon or marathon, you are likely to be asked what your likely finish time and pace will be. If you haven’t finished one of these races before, you probably wonder how to estimate these numbers.

Predicting a race time, especially for a long-distance race like a marathon, is tough because there are so many variables that can affect your performance. Of course, weather conditions can be unpredictable. But other factors that may not seem significant—like pre-race sleep, race-day jitters, and even crowd-turnout—can play a role in your finish time as well.

So how do you set realistic goals for your race outcome? There are a few different ways to establish a reasonable goal for your finish time.

Use a Calculator

To get a more exact prediction of your race finish time, you can also use a calculator.

Keep in mind that the race time predictions are estimates of the time you might achieve if you do the appropriate training for that distance. So it doesn’t mean that if you train for a 5K and achieve a good time, then you’ll automatically run the corresponding marathon time.

In addition, as previously mentioned there are many variables that can affect your time. No two courses are exactly the same. For example, running a hilly course is likely to be slower than running a flat course. And running in high altitude is going to be slower than running at sea level.

Use a Table

If you’ve recently run any other race, one way to give yourself a rough estimate of what you’re capable of running is to use a chart. The chart below predicts race times based on performance at other events of varying distances.

Look for your most recent race time in one of the columns on the left, then follow it across to your predicted marathon finish time.

1-mile 5-K 10-K Half-marathon Marathon

4:20 15:00 31:08 1:08:40 2:23:47

4:38 16:00 33:12 1:13:19 2:33:25

4:56 17:00 35:17 1:17:58 2:43:01

5:14 18:00 37:21 1:22:38 2:52:34

5:33 19:00 39:26 1:27:19 3:02:06

5:51 20:00 41:31 1:31:59 3:11:35

6:09 21:00 43:36 1:36:36 3:21:00

6:28 22:00 45:41 1:41:18 3:30:23

6:46 23:00 47:46 1:45:57 3:39:42

7:05 24:00 49:51 1:50:34 3:48:57

7:24 25:00 51:56 1:55:11 3:58:08

7:42 26:00 54:00 1:59:46 4:07:16

8:01 27:00 56:04 2:04:20 4:16:19

8:19 28:00 58:08 2:08:53 4:25:19

8:37 29:00 1:00:12 2:13:24 4:34:14

8:56 30:00 1:02:15 2:17:53 4:43:06

When using the table, keep in mind that it is best to use an actual time from a hosted event (rather than a training run), as that is when you are performing at your peak. You might even schedule a 5K or 10K race before you register for a half or full marathon to see your pace at those distances.

How to Get a More Accurate Prediction

You’re more likely to get an accurate prediction for a marathon based on a half-marathon time, rather than a 5K. So, if you can input a similar distance when using a table or calculator, you’re likely to get a better result.

It’s also good to use a time from a recent race, ideally no more than six weeks before signing up for your race. If it’s more time than that, your fitness level may have changed (for better or worse) and the times won’t be as accurate.

Also, if you’re running local races, running a race within a few weeks of your target race increases your chances of having similar weather conditions for both races, which will also make your time prediction more realistic.

Predicting a Walk/Run Time

While experienced runners may know their race pace at various distances, it may be much more difficult for walkers and those who use the walk/run method to know their pace.

Average Times Using Different Methods

There are different ways that experts suggest you can use to predict your time. Of course, you can use a calculator. You might even average your predicted calculator time with times estimated using other methods.

Marathon coach Hal Higdon suggests finding your marathon finish time by multiplying your 10K time by five if you are a first-timer, or 4.66 if you are an experienced marathoner.

Dr. John Robinson suggests a different approach. He says that you can add 20 seconds to your mile each time you double your distance. If you have done a half marathon, take your average minutes per mile, add 20 seconds and multiply by 26.2.

Compare Predicted Time to Posted Cutoff Times

As a walker or a walk/runner, compare your predicted time to the cutoff time posted for the event you plan to participate in. Do not enter an event if you might not make the cutoff time.

There are many half marathons and marathons available that are walker-friendly with either a generous cutoff time or no cutoff time at all. Consider one of those events for your first marathon. The experience is likely to be more enjoyable for you if you don’t have to worry about a late finish.

In a worst-case scenario, take the sag wagon if you don’t expect to make the cutoff time. You’ll have to take a DNF (did not finish) but the miles that you completed still count as an accomplishment. And you can turn the experience into a win. Use it to focus on fully training for your next race.

A Word From Verywell

Remember that if you sign up for a marathon or longer race, you will be assigned to a corral based on finish time. Race organizers start each corral a minute or two apart to keep the course from being congested. So it is helpful to know this number.

There’s obviously a large margin of error when using race predictor calculators, but it’s helpful to have a rough estimate before a race, rather than going into it blindly. It can definitely keep you from setting race goals and prevent pacing mistakes, such as going out too fast.

Running ​Race Predictor

BY MY PRO COACH

This simple race pace and finish time calculator uses your recent race results to give you a clear table of your predicted race time for other distances, such as 5km, 10km and half marathon. The calculator also shows your predicted race pace in kms and miles!

To get the most accurate predictions, it helps if your previous race was similar to your predicted race, in terms of:

After using the running calculator, you can also print your results or download as a PDF below. Enjoy!

The Race Time & Pace Predictor

Note: Separate marathon predictor coming soon, in the meantime you may want to check these ones out:
https://www.fetcheveryone.com/marathonprediction
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/marathon-calculator

I have over 20 years of experience helping amateur athletes surpass their goals, while still making sure they have quality time available for their family, friends and career. Join our community below!

Running race time predictor. How fast can you run?

4 methods to predict your potential running race time

What is my potential running race time?

For example, I can run 10 km in 50 minutes: what could be the half marathon marathon finish time? And for a marathon?

Riegel formula

An empirical way to estimate the race time is to use the time and the distance of a recent run in the so-called Riegel formula. Pete Riegel proposed the following formula in 1977:

with t_in and d_in respectively the time and the distance of the known performance and t is the estimated time to travel the distance d.

Dave F. Cameron’s Model

This model uses the top 10 times in the world at various distances to compute performances across distances. In his article Cameron states that to obtain the following formulas he used non-linear regression methods:

with t_in and d_in respectively the time [s] and the distance [m] of the known performance and t [s] is the estimated time to travel the distance d [m].

Estimate based on VO₂ Max

VO₂ Max (also maximal oxygen consumption or maximal aerobic capacity) is the maximum rate of oxygen consumption as measured during incremental exercise.
The estimate based on the VO₂ Max first computes the VO₂ Max, given the performance entered, using the Daniels and Gilbert VO₂ Max formula:

with v = d_in/t_in, where d_in the distance in meters and t_in the time in seconds of the performance entered. VO₂max is expressed in millilitres of oxygen per kilogram of body mass per minute (e.g., ml/(kg·min)).
The same formula is then used in reverse to estimate the times by using the same VO₂ Max found at the beginning. There is no analytic solution to solve this problem, but the solution can be found numerically (we use the Newton’s Method).

Age grading

This method is the only that uses age and gender of the runner. With the so called age grading prediction we assume that you will able to run the same age-graded performance at every distance. The age-graded score is the percentage ratio between the world record for your age and gender and the time of your performance.
So, for example, a 40-year-old man that runs 10 km in 50 minutes has a age-graded score equal to 55.4%. This value is used to predit times at differen distances.

Insert here your data to calculate your potential race time

Press here to predict your race time

10 km Training Plans

Tools for runners: 10 km training plan.
Do you want to run a 10 K (6.2 mi)?
Create your 10 km training plan! Tables for times from 35 minutes to 1 hour and 15 minutes, with customizations in 1 minute steps (that is, for example, you can choose 40 minutes, or 41 minutes, and so on). Fast link:
10 km in 35 minutes
10 km in 40 minutes
10 km in 45 minutes
10 km in 50 minutes
10 km in 55 minutes
10 km in 1 hour
10 km in 1 hour and 15 minutes

Half-Marathon Training Plans

Tools for runners: half-marathon training plan.
Do you want to run a 21 K (13.1 mi)?
Create your half-marathon training plan. Tables for times from 1 hour and 20 minutes to 2 hours and 30 minutes, with customizations in 1 minutes steps (that is, for example, you can choose 1 hour and 47 minutes, or 1 hour and 48 minutes, and so on). Fast link:
Half-Marathon in 1 hour and 30 minutes
Half-Marathon in 1 hour and 45 minutes
Half-Marathon in 2 hours
Half-Marathon in 2 hours and 15 minutes
Half-Marathon in 2 hours and 30 minutes

Marathon Training Plans

Tools for runners: marathon training plan.
Do you want to run a 42 K (26.2 mi)?
Create your marathon training plan! Tables for times from 3 hours to 6 hours, with customizations in 1 minute steps (that is, for example, you can choose 4 hours and 5 minutes, or 4 hours and 6 minutes, and so on). Fast link:
Marathon in 3 hours
Marathon in 3 hours and 30 minutes
Marathon in 4 hours
Marathon in 4 hours and 30 minutes
Marathon in 5 hours
Marathon in 5 hours and 30 minutes
Marathon in 6 hours

Why This Race-Time Predictor Should Be Part of Your Training Plan

Your approximate race time affects just about every aspect of your run: what you wear, how much you eat, and more.

What This Tool Does: Use this calculator to predict your estimated time and pace for any popular running race distance from 1500 meters to the marathon. For best results, your recent races should have a similar difficulty level (hills, surface, heat, etc.) as the race for which you’re predicting a time.

Why Use It: Estimating your finish time is a major part of race prep—and not just so you can make sure you’re tracking for a PR.

How to Use It: Insert a recent race time into a field, and the tool will use an algorithm to predict your outcome for your target distance.

Note: This prediction tool becomes increasingly important as your race distance increases. Undershooting your 5K by five minutes probably won’t affect your life too much (unless you’re striving for a PR—in which case, we feel you), but underestimating your marathon time can really, really suck. Take it from Hollis Tuttle, RRCA-certified running coach and trainer for the Mirror, who learned this the hard way: “I didn’t have enough fuel, so I bonked about 3 miles out from the finish,” she says. “It was horrible.”

As you plan out your races for the summer and fall, having a realistic goal in mind based on your previous race times is a great starting point when it comes to crafting the right training and racing plan.

“Your approximate finish time determines everything about your race plan,” says Tuttle.

This includes important things, like wearing the appropriate layers for a change in weather. “You should know if you’ll be running through the afternoon when it heats up,” Tuttle says, along with more upbeat action items, such as crafting the perfect playlist and planning your postrace brunch.

“Your cheer squad will be able to anticipate where you’ll be when, including when you cross the finish line,” Tuttle says. As for that playlist: “You’ll want to hear your favorite songs during the last quarter of the race when your energy starts to wane.” It’s a lot harder to make this happen without a sense of timing.

Most importantly, you need to plan your fuel accordingly. “Carbohydrate recommendations are based on how much time you spend running,” says Jessica Chon, R.D., a nutrition specialist at Clif Bar & Company, which means not having a time estimate puts you at risk of messing up your food supply.

Chon says you should have 30 to 60 grams of carbohydrates every hour if you’re running 1 to 2.5 hours. (Your body has enough fuel to sustain you for runs less than an hour.) “And if you’re running for longer than 2.5 hours, that goes up to about 90 grams of carbohydrates per hour,” she says. “The more you run, the more you need to rely on external additional sources for energy.” (For context, one CLIF SHOT Energy Gel has 24 grams of carbohydrates.)

Speaking of PRs, it’s not too late to change this number if it’s slower than you thought. Here are 4 Sprint Workouts That Will Increase Your Speed.

Tuttle also emphasizes the benefits of hitting the weight room: “All runners should be strength training once or twice a week,” she says. “Lifting not only helps you avoid injury, but it allows you to run faster, longer.” We suggest trying these 9 Weight-Training Exercises for Runners or blast through a series of supersets with this 30-minute workout from Runner’s World+ Coach Jess.

RW’s Race Time Predictor

The Runner’s World race time predictor does exactly what it’s title suggests – this calculator lets you input a recent race time, to see what you should be capable of at another distance.

How does the race time calculator work?

It’s based on a formula originally devised by Pete Riegel, a research engineer and marathoner, and has been widely used for over 20 years. The formula is T2 = T1 x (D2/D1) 1.06 where T1 is the given time, D1 is the given distance, D2 is the distance to predict a time for, and T2 is the calculated time for D2.

It is adjusted for distance, so your 10K time prediction isn’t just double your 5K time, but there are things to note before using the calculator:

1. It assumes you’ve done appropriate training for the distance. Just because you’ve done a 22-minute 5K today doesn’t mean you can do a sub-4 marathon tomorrow. Obvious, really.
2. It assumes you don’t have a natural significant bias towards either speed or endurance. Some people, no matter how much training they do, will always over-achieve at one end of the scale.
3. The calculations become less accurate for times under three and a half minutes, and over four hours.

I want to run faster, what should I do?

When it comes to running faster, we’ve got the training plans to help. Find the plan for you here:

How should I prepare for race day?

1. Nutrition: It goes without saying, fuelling your body properly will help improve your performance. Covering diet, hydration, recipes and supplements, take a look through our nutrition guide here.

2. Tapering: Tapering is important when it comes to getting your body ready for race day, but it is anything but easy. Race-day nerves will increase, as the miles decrease, and it’s easy to feel jittery. Read up on how to taper, and avoid tapering mistakes here:

3. Training: From motivational stories to keep your legs moving, to specific advice for every distance, have a browse through our training articles to find the answers to the most commonly asked questions, or the inspiration to head out on a particularly difficult run.

How should I recover post-run, or post-race?

1. Stretching: Post-race, you’ll need to make sure you’ve stretched your muscles to avoid injury. Have a look at our complete guide for stretching for runners to keep you flexible in all your main running muscles.

2. Recovery: Post race, or post run, you’ll need to make sure you’re getting enough rest to help your body recover and avoid injuries.